Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Thursday’s MLB Games
By Mike Sheets
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After getting roughed up in his major-league debut, Matthew Liberatore (7% rostered in ESPN leagues) looked better in his second outing, spinning five shutout frames with six strikeouts against the Milwaukee Brewers. The 22-year-old still has some kinks to work out, as he needs to show improved command and gain some consistency with his secondary offerings, but the pieces are there for him to be a fantasy-relevant starter. The former first-round pick finds himself in a favorable spot on Thursday, squaring off against a Chicago Cubs team that posted the second-highest strikeout rate (25.6%) in May.
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Eric Karabell explains why Matthew Liberatore is an intriguing option for strikeouts and run prevention at Wrigley Field on Thursday.
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Corey Kluber (33%) has battled inconsistency this season, but when he’s been good, he’s been really good, registering a Game Score of 70 or higher in three starts. To compare, Gerrit Cole has only two starts this season that registered at 70 or higher. Plus, if you remove his one blowup outing against the Los Angeles Angels in early May (8 ER in 3 IP), Kluber sports a 2.59 ERA in his other eight starts with nearly a strikeout per inning. On Thursday’s abbreviated slate, the veteran right-hander makes for a solid streaming option against the Texas Rangers, who rank bottom-five versus right-handed pitching with a .288 wOBA.
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Tyrone Taylor (6%) is finally getting everyday at-bats in the Milwaukee Brewers outfield, and he’s making the most of it. Over his last 13 games, he has hit .341 with five home runs, 18 RBI, and nine runs while slotting into the heart of the batting order. If Taylor keeps hitting like this, he’s going to stay in the lineup — even when Hunter Renfroe returns from the IL. On Thursday, he gets the platoon edge against Sean Manaea, who has been more vulnerable against right-handed batters this season. Scoop up Taylor for this matchup and ride out his current hot streak.
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Alex Faedo of the Detroit Tigers has a 3.00 ERA over five big-league starts, but the underlying numbers suggest some regression is coming. That regression could very well begin on Thursday against a Minnesota Twins club that put up a 123 wRC+ last month. Fortunately, it’s relatively easy to get exposure to the Twins lineup, as Gary Sanchez (44%), Gio Urshela (21%), Trevor Larnach (3%), and Jose Miranda (1%) are all widely available. All four hitters have been doing damage at the plate over the last two weeks — particularly Urshela (.390/.458/.585) and Miranda (.348/.375/.609).
Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Thursday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
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Miguel Andujar (NYY, LF — 1%) vs. Shohei Ohtani and Reid Detmers
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Luis Rengifo (LAA, SS — 0%) at Jameson Taillon and Nestor Cortes
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Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 37%) vs. Joan Adon
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Adam Duvall (ATL, RF — 25%) at Austin Gomber
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Mike Moustakas (CIN, 3G — 10%) vs. Adon
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Nick Senzel (CIN, CF — 1%) vs. Adon
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Isiah Kiner-Falefa (NYY, SS — 13%) vs. Ohtani and Detmers
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William Contreras (ATL, C — 24%) at Gomber
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Yandy Diaz (VG, 1G — 31%) at Taylor Hearn
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Cesar Hernandez (WSH, 2G — 14%) at Graham Ashcraft
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Thursday
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Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 79%) vs. Matthew Liberatore
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Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B — 62%) at Tony Gonsolin
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Yoan Moncada (CHW, 3B — 59%) at Alek Manoah
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Brandon Crawford (SF, SS — 54%) at Sandy Alcantara
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Rowdy Tellez (MIL, 1B — 66%) vs. Sean Manaea
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Gavin Lux (LAD, SS — 52%) vs. taijuan walker
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Joc Pederson (SF, CF — 71%) at Alcantara
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Jose Abreu (CHW, 1B — 97%) at Manoah
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Luis Robert (CHW, CF — 98%) at Manoah
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Christian Yelich (MIL, LF — 98%) vs. Manaea
THE BAT X’s Best Stacks for Today
Prop of the Day
Ty France Home Runs: Over/Under 0.5 (+950/-3500)
PROJECTION
THE BAT sees France putting up 0.15 home runs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 14.1% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $47.81.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
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THE BAT projects Jordan Lyles in the 15th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching talent level.
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Ty France is projected to hit second in the lineup in this game.
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The weatherman calls for the best hitting weather of all games on the slate today.
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France hits a lot of his fly balls to center field (38.8%, 86th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s fourth-shallowest centerfield fences today.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
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